GO GREEN - BRIAN GREENE!

A little off the subject..but a necessary reminder.

2009-02-11T22:29:00.000-08:00

Just wanted to remind everyone who's in charge of trying to fix the current housing problem.

The following is an excerpt from an article printed by the NY Times on 9/11/2003...

''These two entities -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -- are not facing any kind of financial crisis,'' said Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts, the ranking Democrat on the Financial Services Committee. ''The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.''

Frank's response to Bush's new agency proposed to oversee Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

To read the whole article (and it's worth reading!)

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E06E3D6123BF932A2575AC0A9659C8B63&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all

When To Buy and Sell Homes in the San Fernando Valley

2009-01-01T19:59:00.001-08:00

December Inventory for the San Fernando Valley

2009-01-01T19:58:00.001-08:00

December Inventory for Tarzana

2009-01-01T19:57:00.000-08:00

December Inventory for my "Farm" (600 Homes South of the Blvd. in Tarzana)

2009-01-01T19:49:00.000-08:00

When to Buy and Sell in the San Fernando Valley

2008-11-01T18:28:00.001-07:00

The median price of single-family homes sold during September declined a record 37.1 percent from a year ago to a median of $392,500. Record high home sales during the month of September continue to put increasing pressure on inventory. At the current pace of sales, that represents a 6.9-month supply, only slightly on the high end of the 5- to 6-month supply which real estate experts believe indicates a balanced market. Guaranteed, at some point in the future, we will see the market reverse course and prices will start to rise again.

October Inventory in the San Fernando Valley

2008-11-01T18:26:00.001-07:00

October Inventory figures in the San Fernando Valley are not yet available, but continued to drop in the previous month of September.

October Inventory for Tarzana

2008-11-01T18:19:00.000-07:00

October inventory in Tarzana started to creep up after four months of declining.

October Inventory for my "farm"

2008-11-01T18:15:00.001-07:00

Inventory spiked a little in my farm of 600 single family homes South of the Boulevard in Tarzana after we saw a four month decline.

Tarzana Inventory Continues to Drop in September!!!

2008-10-02T22:09:00.000-07:00

San Fernando Valley Median Prices Continue to Decline While Inventory Overall Remains High!!

2008-10-02T22:02:00.000-07:00

San Fernando Valley Inventory Drops in August!!!

2008-10-02T21:39:00.000-07:00

Lessons from The Gas Station Guru

2008-09-27T17:39:00.000-07:00

Today a gas station attendant noticed I was in real estate from the signs on my car. He asked how the market was. To which I replied,

"Horrible because I just started out this last year, but it's also an excellent time to buy. It's a buyer's market and I'm not just saying that cause I'm trying to sell you something."

He then proceeded to argue with me about how he felt it wasn't the time to buy. I left feeling frustrated that I, the real estate professional, couldn't convince this gas station attendant, the non-real estate professional that I was right. It then hit me...when I was a stock broker during the height of the Dot-com Boom I remember gas station attendants, barbers and taxi drivers not asking me anymore for stock tips, but giving out the stock tips. It was at this moment that I realized the market was over-bought. I cashed out and bought real estate before the market crashed. Today in real estate, the opposite is true. The gas station attendant is telling me it's not time to buy. So, what I'm hearing is, the market is over-sold and it's time to buy! Houses might be an emotional commodity but none-the-less they are a commodity just like stocks.

Massive Rescue Effort for Financial Markets

2008-09-19T16:29:00.000-07:00

Congressional leaders and the Bush administration are working with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke to prepare a massive intervention to revive the U.S. financial system.

The proposed plan reportedly includes using hundreds of billions of dollars in government funding to buy bad loans, leaving banks with more money and fewer problems and allowing them to again lend money.

Paulson and Bernanke urged lawmakers to approve the plan rapidly, presenting what some described as a “chilling” picture of the state of the financial system.

Congressional leaders were told that the consequences would be grave if the legislation doesn’t pass by the end of next week.

Taking over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, creating a new source of funding for investment banks, and assuming control of insurance giant American International Group obviously hasn’t been enough to end the crisis. It hasn’t stopped $79 billion in withdrawals from money-market funds, which are a critical source of funding for the U.S. financial system.

"The costs of doing nothing are enormous," said Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.

Source: The Washington Post, Binyamin Appelbaum and Lori Montgomery (09/19/08)

Mortgage Rate Update

2008-09-13T01:28:00.000-07:00

This update is from a mortgage broker I work with out of my office, Ryan Pickup...

Mortgage Bonds soared higher earlier in the week on the news that Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac were coming under control of the government. The
government's move to create a line of $200 billion to back all Fannie &
Freddie loans at all costs is good news for homeowners. First, it
ensures the continued liquidity of conforming loans nationwide and,
second, it ensures that buyers of this type of Bond have a safe
investment going forward. There should be no doubt that this will help
the US housing market move through the current credit crunch that we're
in. The bond market gave back some of the biggest rate improvements
from earlier in the week but overall rates are still looking great!

Here is today's pricing:

$417,000 and under
Conforming 30 Year Fixed - 5.625% @ 1.0 point (0.00 point pricing is
available)
Conforming 5/1 ARM - 5.375% @ 1.0 point (0.00 point pricing is
available)
Conforming 10/1 ARM - 5.75% @ 1.0 point (0.00 point pricing is
available)

$417,001 to $729,750
ConJumbo 30 Year Fixed - 5.75% @ 1.0 point (0.00 point pricing is
available)
ConJumbo 5/1 ARM - 6.125% @ 1.0 point (0.00 point pricing is
available)

$729,751 and up
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed - 7.125% @ 1.0 point (0.00 point pricing is
available)
Jumbo 5/1 ARM - 6.125% @ 1.0 point (0.00 point pricing is
available)
Jumbo 10/1 ARM - 6.625% @ 1.0 point (0.00 point pricing is
available)

$729,750 and under
FHA 30 Year Fixed - 5.625% @ 1.0 point (0.00 point pricing
available)

Have a great weekend!

Thanks,
Ryan Pickup, Loan Rep.
First Capital
818.540.2384

Free Real Estate Advice from Brian Greene

2008-09-10T19:51:00.000-07:00

With Warren Buffett's advice about being brave and buying when everyone else is afraid, didn't convince you to buy don't worry. There's still time to consider some cold hard facts and listen to my advice. I just completed my market study of Tarzana, one of the cities I sell, and the number of homes currently on the market for sale is dropping -fast! We all know the law of economics, supply vs. demand...

Increasing Inventory = Prices Go Down
Decreasing Inventory = Prices Go Up

So here are the cold hard facts on inventory...

Tarzana - Total Single Family Homes For Sale

June - 194

July - 180

August - 166

This is a 14.4% drop from June through August. This is not the yearly drop in inventory we see around December every year. Over the last three months, typically the busiest part of the year, Tarzana inventory has been trending significantly lower.

San Fernando Valley - Total Single Family Homes For Sale

May - 5215

June - 5154

July - 5187

This is a 0.5% drop from May through July (August figures are not yet available). San Fernando Valley inventory is relatively unchanged from May through July.

Conclusion: Houses for sale in desirable areas like Tarzana are selling faster than they're coming on and houses for sale in less desirable areas are staying on longer than they're going off. Therefore, Tarzana and similar area prices are stabilizing and starting to go up while less desirable area prices are going to continue to drop.

Sure, we might still get the occasional low-priced Tarzana foreclosure or short sale that's a dump, but unless your willing to invest lots of money to rehab the house it's going to remain a dump. Is that the house you're waiting to buy? If your answer is no and you're waiting for prices on good homes in Tarzana and the like to keep dropping, I'm sorry to tell you you're going to be waiting a long time. Unless of course you want to move to a less desirable area.

My advice...and you should hurry...the desirable area drop in inventory coupled with 30 year low mortgage rates makes this an excellent time to buy!

Multiple Offers Reappearing

2008-09-10T18:59:00.000-07:00

BY MARY FUNK, PRESIDENT, AND DAVID WALKER, SRAR
While many prospective home buyers are still waiting in hopes of catching the bottom, others are jumping into the residential real estate market feet first and, in a growing number of instances, they wind up competing with a swelling legion eager to capture a bargain.

At a recent meeting involving dozens of members of the Southland Regional Association of Realtors®, all of the Realtors® said they had recently encountered home purchases where a handful of buyers presented competing purchase offers.

"It's happening in all price ranges and in all communities," one participant said.

Many of the properties have list prices that had been discounted from year ago levels, including a number of bank-owned houses that had been involved in foreclosure proceedings.

The activity level is no where near the frenzy of the seller's boom, the participants said, but offers are coming ion, near and, in some instances, above the already discounted list price.

The reports represented a significant shift in a market that had been paralyzed by buyers who had been glued to the proverbial procrastinator's fence. Buyers' hesitancy created endless work but no sales for Realtors®, who typically are not compensated until an escrow closes.

That lack of urgency now appears to be fading as more buyers enter the market at a time when government-sponsored programs appear to be setting the finance industry, thus making home loans more available and affordable - albeit at stricter qualifying guidelines which require proof of income and down payments.

Buyers who are entering the market believe they have a secure source of income, faith in the local economy and realize that waiting to catch the top or bottom of any real estate cycle is risky business, with success hinging on a large close of luck.

The recent increases in government-insured mortgage limits are expected to provide much-needed liquidity and stability to housing markets across the country.

That is especially true in California - a region with particularly expensive homes - where tens of thousands of families could be eligible this year to purchase or refinance their homes thanks to the recently approved Economic Stimulus Act.

The higher loan limit expands the pool of eligible borrowers, enabling more families to qualify for safe, affordable FHA-insured mortgage loans which can be as high as $729,750.

By focusing on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages, FHA helps home owners avoid and escape the risks associated with exotic subprime mortgage products, which have resulted in rising default and foreclosure rates.

While still at historically low levels, rising sales suggest that the worst may be past and that more buyers believe that the time to buy is now.

Page printed from http://www.srar.com/members/rronline/9-1-Multipleoffers.php

Poll: Housing Market to Improve with New President

2008-07-23T17:54:00.001-07:00

A recent survey conducted by Harris Interactive on behalf of Move Inc. shows that 44 percent of home buyers expect improvements in the housing market when the new president is installed next year.
At the same time, 81 percent of home buyers are still nervous about the current housing market and say there are barriers between them and home ownership. What kinds of barriers? Respondents cited the cost of a down payment (28 percent), their annual income level (20 percent), lack of confidence in the economy (26 percent) and high home prices (31 percent).

Despite these reservations, the survey indicates underlying demand for homeownership is healthy. While nearly half (41 percent) of current homeowners do plan to purchase a home again, 80 percent of all renters plan to purchase a home someday with 47 percent planning to purchase a home within the next five years.

Most home buyers (78 percent) are also willing to make sacrifices to save and earn extra income for down payments, and will compromise on neighborhood features and residential amenities in order to buy a home in the current market.

Many of their choices may reflect changing values, including a growing concern over the environment, the importance of community features and the rising cost of fuel.

"These findings show that despite the difficulties home buyers face in the wake of the subprime crisis and their concerns about economic uncertainty, underlying demand appears relatively strong. Consumers see better times coming," said Lorna Borenstein, president of Move, Inc.

Source: Move Inc.

10 Cities Where Cost of Living Is Growing Fast

2008-07-23T17:51:00.000-07:00

Forbes magazine looked at inflation in the 40 largest metro areas in the U.S. to see where prices were rising fastest.The numbers were supplied by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com and reflected changes between January and June 2008.Resetting mortgages, rising food prices and runaway fuel costs are the biggest sources of the pain.

Here are the top 10 cities with the highest annual inflation rates.

Seattle, 5.82 percent
Dallas, 5.82 percent
Washington, D.C., 5.74 percent
Miami, 5.71 percent
Portland, Ore., 5.68 percent
San Jose, Calif., 5.61 percent
Milwaukee, Wisc., 5.61 percent
Tampa, 5.60 percent
Phoenix, 5.44 percent
Los Angeles, 5.41 percent

Source: Forbes, Matt Woolsey (07/18/2008)

Fast Facts

2007-10-25T08:12:00.001-07:00

Calif. median home price - September 07: $530,830(Source: C.A.R.)

Calif. highest median home price by C.A.R. region September 07: Santa Barbara So. Coast $1,667,500(Source: C.A.R.)

Calif. lowest median home price by C.A.R. region September 07: High Desert $271,940(Source: C.A.R.)

Calif. First-time Buyer Affordability Index - Second Quarter 07: 24 percent (Source: C.A.R.)

Mortgage rates - week ending 10/18: 30-yr. fixed: 6.40%; Fees/points: 0.5% 15-yr. fixed: 6.08%; Fees/points: 0.6% 1-yr. adjustable: 5.76%; Fees/points: 0.6% (Source: Freddie Mac)

Narrowing the Search and A Few Clips About the Market

2007-10-24T23:12:00.000-07:00

I'm still picking out my schools, but it's looking like Calabasas. Their schools are in the Las Virgenes school district. See this link to locate a school:

http://www.lvusd.k12.ca.us/webapps/portal/index.php?option=com_wrapper&Itemid=43

In the meantime check out the clips and articles below regarding the tremendous launch of the HPCI study, including television appearances by Jim Gillespie on CNBC and MarketWatch.

CNBC (Video)
http://video.msn.com/video.aspx?mkt=en-US&brand=&vid=f6a661a0-2457-4826-8430-863ae9470555

Marketwatch/DowJones: “Housing Inventory Peak?” (Video)
http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/bcPlayer.asp?bcpid=203719194&bclid=86272812&bctid=1209892877

BusinessWeek
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/sep2007/db20070925_163905.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story

USA TODAY
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2007-09-25-home-price-survey_N.htm

CNNMoney.com
http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/25/real_estate/home_prices/?postversion=2007092606

Bloomberg.com
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a58RfirKe.v4

ABCNews.com
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=3651605&page=1

United Press International
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Business/2007/09/26/beverly_hills_most_expensive_home_market/7910/

Inman News
http://www.inman.com/inmannews.aspx?ID=64701

2007-10-18T22:52:00.000-07:00

Ok, I've got the data sorted on the highest ranked schools in the Los Angeles Unified School District. I was going to post the table, but I can't figure out how to do it. If you want to create your own spreadsheet to rank the schools look at the following website:

http://api.cde.ca.gov/AcntRpt2007/2007GrthAPIdst.aspx?cYear=&allcds=1964733&cChoice=2007GDst1

As soon as I figure out which city has the three highest elementary, middle and high schools I will let you know.

The Great Search

2007-10-18T22:36:00.000-07:00

My wife and I started looking for a new home today!

In searching for a home it is always smartest (no pun intended) to buy where the good schools are located. So I looked up API scores for schools in the Los Angeles Unified School District and ranked them. Once I have the city for all three of the highest ranked elementary, middle and high schools picked out I can start looking to see what the houses are priced at. I will share my results soon.

Recent Media Excerpts about the Positive Signs in the Real Estate Market:

2007-09-24T22:31:00.000-07:00

Subprime Reality Check

The subprime problem is certainly serious, but it is a short-term problem, mainly involving mortgages originated during 2004-2006 and playing out over the next two years or so.

This issue will be mitigated by public and private efforts to help the families in distress. There is no reason for it to spread to the prime market.

Lenders are trying to work out a modified repayment plan if there seems to be a realistic chance that the borrower can catch up. In the FHA's experience, about half the borrowers in the program do become current within a year. If the lenders and the regulators follow through, they can ease the problem substantially.

We have been here before, and not that long ago. Delinquencies and especially foreclosures on prime mortgages remained low during 2000-2002, consistently around 1% for serious delinquencies and 0.2% for foreclosures. The subprime spike had no impact on the prime market then. There is no reason to expect one this time. The delinquency rate has again been stable, so far, while foreclosures have edged up to 0.25% from 0.2%.

Loans originated in 2003 and earlier pose no unusual problem.

Homeowners who are able to make their payments are not going to lose their homes because other homeowners are losing theirs. The roof is not caving in on housing.
- “Desperate House Loans? (subscription required)” John Weicher, Wall Street Journal, Aug. 29, 2007.

Mortgage
Mortgage rates on 30-year fixed mortgages in the United States fell 4 basis points to 6.08 percent today, according to Bankrate.com's daily Your Best Interest report. The mortgages in the survey had an average of 0.63 discount and origination points. Bankrate.com, Aug. 29, 2007.
Foreign Investors, Immigrants Boosting the Market
“…more and more consumers from around the world are interested in purchasing a home in the United States for themselves, as an investment, or simply to enjoy a piece of the American dream.”
- Pat V. Combs, of Grand Rapids, Mich., NAR President and vice president of Coldwell Banker-AJS-Schmidt. “NAR Study Confirms: They Come To America – To Buy Homes" Iverson Moore, National Association of Realtors, July 30, 2007.

Amid slow demand from an aging and slow-growing native population, immigrants are fueling predictions of a rebound.

In California, nearly one-third of recent homebuyers were foreign-born. For New York, New Jersey and Florida, the figures were between one-quarter and one-fifth.
- “Immigrants Lift U.S. Housing Market,” Mark Jewell, Forbes.com, July 30, 2007.
Vacation-Home Buyers Going Strong

Forbes.com, Best Places to Buy a Vacation Home, Aug. 9, 2007:
If the sun is shining on the shore, or the powder's falling on the slopes, vacation-home buyers don't mind short-term market fluctuations very much. "The main thing motivating a vacation-home buyer is utility. They want to maximize their purchase around a recreational activity," David Hehman, president of EscapeHomes.com, a San Francisco-based second-home research site. As examples:

Northeast: Summer destination Water Mill, N.Y., in Bridgehampton appreciated fastest, with a median home price of $1.38 million, increasing in value at an average of 21% a year over the last five years.

Midwest: Victoria, Minn., which is surrounded by many of the state's trademark lakes, grew an average of 18% a year.

South: The north end of Key Largo, Fla., has appreciated at 27% a year, on average, according to NeighborhoodScout, making it the fastest-growing vacation spot in the South.

West: Moran, Wyo., situated between Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks, has seen 35% average increases in annual value since 2002.

Bright Spots in the Market – “Real Estate Oases”

Q. What types of neighborhoods are seeing strong activity?
A. Housing analysts say:

Real estate oases in most major markets whose local economies display moderate to strong fundamentals.

Established neighborhoods convenient to the urban center's employment and cultural attractions that don't require residents to make long commutes.

Above-median-income areas, often well above, with home prices to match. - “Bright spots in the overall gloomy market,” Kenneth R. Harney, Washington Post Writers Group, Aug. 26, 2007.